Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 21.993695 25.035472 28.314655 32.108820 36.374145 41.017165 46.450418
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.488220 21.606065 26.386462 32.331152 39.509928 47.882768 58.371889
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.199562 19.788896 25.373784 32.642591 41.822914 52.999372 67.602152
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.184929 17.988710 24.084996 32.345783 43.198635 56.916099 75.506722
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.868840 16.861096 23.429440 32.642503 45.159949 61.492167 84.320342
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.050271 16.279292 23.385420 33.664722 48.053963 67.363603 95.097699
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.932448 15.147604 22.455956 33.340312 49.010734 70.601248 102.409691
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.580650 13.536873 20.693814 31.659053 47.881584 70.808571 105.422084
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.094757 13.156231 20.659867 32.444458 50.297199 76.090896 115.864498
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.680065 12.839102 20.679700 33.283928 52.807677 81.603799 126.891740
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.068630 12.153124 20.073343 33.102784 53.732831 84.784613 134.574436
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.461528 11.417792 19.325948 32.630379 54.147989 87.176506 141.132036
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.002732 10.900408 18.903854 32.670921 55.408776 90.990321 150.190502
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.674207 10.576523 18.772341 33.171721 57.432511 96.097480 161.550468
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.328837 10.189538 18.498488 33.399994 58.996480 100.517469 171.988177
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.930312 9.671351 17.957671 33.126080 59.685555 103.529216 180.252936
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.660585 9.364177 17.757877 33.419829 61.338191 108.181135 191.417514
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.526236 9.298530 17.980205 34.468003 64.345803 115.230576 206.925221
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.203878 8.844058 17.460572 34.135312 64.884594 118.089327 215.397279
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.725460 8.041503 16.235594 32.416871 62.820772 116.326648 215.747623
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.608331 7.954004 16.354807 33.219712 65.394123 122.798216 230.837431
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.504238 7.884090 16.500946 34.077938 68.108203 129.633142 246.866220
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.287194 7.559366 16.123504 33.892746 68.838108 132.912096 256.609392